Today: 20.Jan.2020

Rob Jeffrey, Independent Economic Risk Consultant: “Although nuclear energy has a high capital cost, it has a large load factor that is about 90%, compared with other energy sources that have a much lower load factor and life capacity.” South Africa’s National Development Plan (NDP) set the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at more than 5% a year for the country to meet its economic, social and political objectives. These objectives include the three fundamental targets of reducing inequality, poverty and unemployment.

Rob Jeffrey, Independent Economic Risk Consultant: Poverty is the single highest social cost to society. There are only three major policy objectives: a) poverty alleviation, b) reducing inequality and c) reducing unemployment. Emerging economies require electricity energy sources that offer security of supply at the lowest possible cost. Conclusion: Unless emerging countries that have fossil fuels use them it will heavily prejudice their future growth and result in increased unemployment and poverty. Renewables and carbon tax are contrary to objectives. They are both taxes on the poor.

Rob Jeffrey, Independent Economic Risk Consultant: The three major objectives of the country are poverty alleviation, reducing inequality and raising standards of living. These objectives can only be achieved by maintaining a high rate of economic growth, thereby reducing levels of unemployment and raising the standard of living. Electricity is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for economic growth. The necessary condition for sustainable economic growth is that there is a stable and secure supply of electricity at the lowest effective economic cost when delivered to the user. The sufficient condition requires that economic, social and political conditions must be put in place to foster and encourage domestic and foreign investment, thereby creating demand for productive and economically efficient industries.

Rob Jeffrey, Independent Economic Risk Consultant: South Africa is now (2018) in a recession, the fact is that South Africa does not have the financial resources to revitalise itself. The country suffers from a low savings rate and the government has no money to undertake the task of renewal and development itself. The only means to forge ahead is to make the country attractive to both domestic and foreign investment. Yet there are wild calls for expropriation without compensation, nationalisation of various industries, including one of the most damaging of the lot nationalising the SA reserve bank or using it as a pot of gold. These calls if they are implemented or gather in strength will drive South Africa into an economic death spiral similar to Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

One of South Africa’s key electricity technology energy advisors is a German renewable energy expert and supplier of German wind turbine equipment. Unbelievable. That highlights the desperate situation South African energy is in. German national energy programs based on wind and solar are only one natural crisis away from being in a disastrous situation.

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